Manjaro (and linux) future direction?

Well they also say Win10 is dying but the official figures show different.
Its called FUD and i'm afraid some users believe any thing because they read it on blaa blaa site must be true.
Linux is fine as it is, Every now again it gets a in flux of windows users, 95% go back to windows within a year out of the 5% remaining 3% return to windows within 5 years that leaves 2% most go somewhere else, other markets are growing for average Joe user to try

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Markets are by definition commerce-predicated; an exchange of goods for money. Given you explicitly mentioned desktops, you've ipso facto focused on the home & hobbyist users, not the server users. Forgive me if i'm mistaken but whilst commerce/markets are relevant considerations for the latter, they are overwhelmingly irrelevant for the former.

Ergo, any talk of marketshare for linux desktops is fanciful faff. Some might opine such reasoning is lazy linguistics; i opine it is lucid logic.

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Well, there is also such a thing as the corporate desktop ─ in which I'm including government, regional and local administration. :slight_smile:

But yes, I agree that the term "market share" is just economical drone speak. We live in a world where everything ─ including human life, sadly enough ─ is quantified and qualified in terms of financial revenue. :worried:

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You would take away @Kadee's reason for being. :smile:

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[Given you explicitly mentioned desktops , you've ipso facto focused on the home & hobbyist users].
You appear to equate "server users" with professionalism and "desktop users" with home & hobbyist. You even use the term "ipso facto".

  1. I have met many professionals who used managed Win, MAC and/or Linux desktops/laptops to do their work (usually a mix of access to core-systems and desktop-productivity apps) and had the management / tech admin of their tools done for them. There is a whole industry around workplace/desktop management.
  2. I have seen many linux enthusiasts setting up servers for themselves while unpaid, and not likely to offer to do that professionally. So they were doing it because they wanted to, rather than as a "professsional" activity.
    There is no value to calling servers "professional" and "desktops" "home & hobbyist".
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If we let them.

I'm sure that many here are savvy enough to understand the utility and pitfalls of statistics. I'm also quite sure we all see the misuse of it for nefarious means. And understanding that corelation does not evince causality.

That said, almost all drugs are approved based on statistical correlation, however stringent the statistical limits. To base a drug trial on causality, for obvious reasons, would not be ethical.

The question therefore should not be correlated to statistics; rather the measurement of human values on financial rubrics. We, or at least those in the capitalist, 'democratic', 'free' world are told to value 'freedom' and individual rights over collective and societal rights.

Even in good times, we naggingly feel something's not quite right. It seems okay for people to pay more to get better service, legroom, boarding and luggage priority for first class fares. But in emergencies like hurricane evacuations, is it fair that those who pay more for car rentals will have priority? How about medical emergencies? Oh yeah, sorry I forgot, we throw poor people out of hospitals in 'free' countries. But it is a free country. It is their freedom to choose to be poor, right?

Nowadays, most strong, developed countries are economically stagnant. Sure GDP growth is fine, 'employment rates' (based not on total employment but on 'available' ) are rising and the statistics do show that. However, statistics also show that 99% of the growth is to the top 1% richest and the bottom 99% do experience a drop in income level while costs are rising rapidly.

Yet, politicians tap onto these resentments, promising 'change', 'hope' or 'great again' and whatever convenient bumper sticker slogans. And are backed by, and so take their orders from, people who would continue to screw the poor.

It's not the statistics, stupid.
It's the stupidity.

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You? Questioning kdemeoz raison d'etre?
Shouldn't you question your raison d'etat?

Here, have white raisins instead.

I accept that we shall necessarily have to remain in disagreement. I simply do not & cannot see the world veiled & distorted through perceived monetary value, despite the plethora who do. I exit & leave you in peace.

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What is there to question about a raisin tart?

I mean sure it may not be the equal of cheesecake, but thats no raison to put it down. :man_shrugging: :wink:

Yes! I knew you wouldn't understand.
So I have to edit my post down to your level...

Pretty good eh?
See, they say it needs darkness to appreciate illumination.
And to appreciate cleverness, it needs....
Ha Ha Ha!!

Mmmm.... white raisin cheesecake. My favorite, how did you know?

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The last posts in this thread are interesting... They demonstrate a strong engagement in using Linux not only as an OS but also as an "everyday idea and belief ship" (i.e. we use it as we value freedom, etc.), whatever the ideas are (and we can see from above that they diverge).

Now, just to clarify thing, there are people criticizing statics there, saying they are false, skewed, etc.

Yes, they are never perfect. But those are numbers that we can use to think. Then always use your critical mind. Compare different sources, look at the trends between different providers, and think about the numbers and the problem.

Without those numbers, there is only free statements like "In my experience", "I believe that", "I have observed around me", "In my understanding", " I think that". Those statements can be used for subjective interpretation of hard data, but should NEVER be accepted for reporting trends without evidence as they just are meaningless.

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Yeah, well, you know, that’s just, like, your opinion, man.

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They are flawed for what people use them, and indeed that doesn't make them entirely useless. But one should just keep in mind that those numbers aren't necessarily representations of "how popular is Linux", "is Linux dying", or "which distro does best atm".

My issue is when people follow them blindly as a reasoning for those type of statements, without thinking of other variables not taken into account in those numbers. Surely, they can be taken into account and they are data that says something. But getting less downloads or website visitors doesn't imminently equal dying. Conclusion are, according to how my university thought me to do scientific research, not allowed to be drawn from data that doesn't answer the question completely when put together, and the only correct answer one could get from these numbers to those questions is "we don't know". Anything else already contains interpretations.

Yes and no. It shouldn't be taken as hard data, but noticeable trends in human behaviour can be taken into account when making a approximation/estimated guess, depending on the source. Even in scientific research this is allowed if the source is considered a professional/knowledgeable person.

Never the less, this forum was about thoughts on OPs statements, and already included assumptions written with "I think" in OPs post. This has never been a scientific/fact only tread, and more a "what is your interpretation of this topic" tread. As such, there is no reason to avoid interpretations, especially not when clearly stated they are.

Working in IT helpdesk and selling computers, I see a fair share of "average" computer users, but I hope that people who read my comments realise that what I notice in store can't possible represent whole of humanity. It can barely represent a small area (barely as I can't see how much of the people actually come here as we count sales, not visitors who get info but not buy so there are no statistics). As for discussion value, it's more intended as a different perspective from someone who deals with regular daily "I need this for school and basic stuff" users than a factual statement one could use in some research paper.

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I do not think any of the stats used are reliable enough to folllow blindly. However: patterns about general uptake can be shown and supported, particularly if several sources report comparable stats and sales-figures appear to concur.
The patterns from statcounter and w3schools over time are not identical, because one would expect linux uptake te be over-represented at w3schools. Otherwise:
https://www.w3schools.com/browsers/browsers_os.asp
Does help show that Macs grew from lower uptake than linux to 10%+ between 2002 and now.
If Linux on the desktop is still growing, then how come linux has stabilised and is probably going down?
Add the statcounter figures, the occasional reports on sales-figures and I think they show ChromeOS is rising and Linux is slightly going down in uptake.

Lol, it's not an opinion, it's the scientific method, see

You cannot provide interpretations without data.

Yeah, well, you know, sometimes it's too hard to resist the temptation to quote "The Dude".

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OMG I did not recognized it! Lol :slight_smile: :+1:

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I was raised on data being "defined" and of a "known quality", so I would tend to call these figures "information" rather than data. In many ways there is not that difference from asking someone with a spreadsheet.
Then again, it is the best there is.
I just discovered that clicky also makes graphs available per country and globally (though not per continent).
Clicky's global trends are in line with netmarketshare and statcounter. Since many of their counters are in web-shops chromebooks are likely to be under-reported (like with netmarketshare).
Clicky confirms chromebook uptake in the USA, New Zealand, Sweden, The Netherlands etc. to be high.
Clicky also confirms Uruguay's exceptionally high uptake of Linux.
Clicky slightly undermines the high uptake of Linux in Greece. It may be that some gov agencies and/or charities or other companies have implemented both Linux and the free statcounter.
Clickly reports healthier uptake of linux in many countries, particularly India, the Netherlands and some others.
I am also enjoying quantcast to see popular websites in countries with small populations like montserrat https://www.quantcast.com/top-mobile-sites/MS?userView=Public

btw: similarweb has probably more reliable visitor figures of archived.forum.manjaro.org judging by what visitors arrive from, leave to and just general expectation.
https://www.similarweb.com/website/archived.forum.manjaro.org

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